#271 | Rheinmetall, Basic-Fit, DSM-Firmenich, Software, Triodos Bank & veel meer!

Key Points

• The podcast discusses consumer trends and investing, featuring an interview with Jacques Nelen from Obeco, who manages a global consumer trends investment strategy.
• Market resilience is noted as surprising, with equity risk premiums not rising significantly despite geopolitical tensions, attributed to a market conditioned to buy dips after years of strong returns.
• The conversation covers the impact of AI on markets, defensive assets like gold underperforming during recent conflicts, and a shift in investment focus towards emerging markets like India and Latin America, away from over-reliance on the US.
• Defense stocks, such as Rheinmetall, did not surge as expected following Middle East conflicts, as much future growth was already priced in, leading to questions about valuation and future performance.

Summary

This podcast episode, sponsored by Sakso, features host Nico Inberg interviewing Jacques Nelen, a portfolio manager at Obeco, focusing on global consumer trends investing. The discussion begins with an overview of Nelen's strategy, which manages approximately 4.5 billion euros and has experienced significant growth, particularly during the 2010-2020 period driven by digitalization and the rise of major internet platforms.

A central theme is the current market's surprising resilience. Despite ongoing geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, equity risk premiums have not increased substantially, and the market has avoided a significant correction. Nelen attributes this to a decade of fantastic returns that have conditioned investors to view every dip as a buying opportunity, leading to rapid recoveries. He also notes the outsized influence of AI on current market valuations.

The conversation explores specific investment trends and reactions. Notably, traditional defensive assets like gold and defensive consumer stocks did not perform as expected during the recent conflict, which Nelen finds interesting. The discussion touches on Bitcoin as a speculative asset rather than a true investment. Nelen explains his strategy's focus on companies with direct consumer exposure, excluding sectors like traditional energy or industrials.

Looking forward, Nelen discusses a strategic shift. While US equities have dominated, there is a conscious move to increase exposure to other regions, particularly emerging markets like India and Latin America, which benefit from a weaker dollar, though Chinese consumer spending has been disappointing. Finally, they analyze defense stocks, using Rheinmetall as an example. Despite ongoing wars, these stocks did not see a major rally, as massive future growth expectations were already priced in during the Ukraine war, leading to high valuations and potential for disappointment if order growth slows. The summary concludes by highlighting the blend of consumer trend analysis, market psychology, and geopolitical assessment that characterizes the investment dialogue.