Aflevering 84: De dominante positie van ASML en NVIDIA. Plus: update Midden-Oosten en China

Key Points

• High oil prices and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz are impacting financial markets, raising inflation risks and concerns about economic slowdown, while shifting investor focus to safe havens like the US dollar and oil/gas stocks.
• A detailed analysis of the semiconductor/AI sector highlights persistent chip shortages, the dominant positions of companies like ASML and Nvidia, and structural factors suggesting sustained, long-term growth rather than a short-term bubble.
• Geopolitical tensions and supply chain vulnerabilities are driving interest in defense stocks, but careful selection is required, as seen in the case of Rheinmetall's strategic expansion into new areas like digital systems and naval applications.

Summary

This podcast episode from March 16, 2026, analyzes three major topics influencing financial markets. The first is the significant impact of high oil prices and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This situation strains global supply chains for oil, natural gas, and agricultural products, fueling inflation concerns. Consequently, investors are seeking safer assets, strengthening the US dollar and benefiting oil and gas stocks like Shell. The inflation risk also suggests central banks, like the US Federal Reserve, will be hesitant to lower interest rates, which pressures bond prices. The broader economic fear is that sustained high inflation could lead consumers to delay spending, potentially triggering an economic slowdown or recession.

The second topic is a deep dive into the semiconductor and artificial intelligence sector, based on an expert video analysis. Key insights include that demand for specific AI chips, like Nvidia's H100, remains so strong that their second-hand prices are higher than at launch three years ago, defying normal depreciation. The massive capital expenditures by big tech companies are for long-term projects (e.g., data centers, energy contracts), indicating AI infrastructure build-out will extend for years, countering "bubble" narratives. The market is characterized by supply shortages, particularly for advanced chip manufacturing equipment. Companies like ASML, which holds a near-monopoly on critical EUV lithography machines, and TSMC, the primary chip manufacturer, are seen as fundamental bottlenecks. Nvidia's dominance is underscored by its securing of an estimated 70% of TSMC's advanced 3-nanometer chip production for 2026. However, risks remain, such as potential future declines in orders if AI models become more efficient.

The third subject covers defense stocks, noting increased investor interest due to global conflicts. The discussion uses Rheinmetall as a case study, highlighting its strong performance and plans to expand from land vehicles into areas like air defense, digital systems, and naval applications. The podcast cautions that investors must carefully evaluate such expansions, as venturing into new digital domains carries execution risks, despite potential partnerships. In conclusion, the overall market sentiment is cautious, weighed down by Middle East geopolitical risks and inflation, but structural growth in sectors like semiconductors provides counterbalancing opportunities. The host expresses a cautiously optimistic view that the situation will stabilize.