למה סעודיה נמנעת מלהיגרר למלחמה?

Key Points

• Saudi Arabia's pre-war strategy involved diplomatic normalization with Iran and a focus on its economic "Vision 2030," but the Gaza war disrupted these plans, forcing a reassessment of regional security.
• Saudi Arabia is pursuing a pragmatic, non-confrontational policy toward Iran, emphasizing defense and leaving the door open for dialogue, while simultaneously seeking to counter Iranian influence, particularly via Hezbollah in Lebanon.
• The war has strained Saudi-U.S. relations, with Saudi Arabia feeling exposed and questioning the reliability of American security guarantees, leading it to diversify its international partnerships.
• Saudi Arabia's primary focus remains on economic stability and Vision 2030, which requires regional calm; it views the ongoing conflict as a major threat to its economic transformation and regional stability.
• Saudi Arabia explicitly rejects normalization with Israel under the current government, linking any future diplomatic progress to a credible political plan for the Palestinians and an end to the war.

Summary

The analysis examines Saudi Arabia's complex position amid the Gaza war and regional tensions with Iran. Prior to the conflict, Saudi Arabia was pursuing a dual-track policy of diplomatic normalization with Iran, brokered by China, and aggressively advancing Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's "Vision 2030" for economic diversification. The war has severely disrupted this agenda, placing Saudi Arabia in a defensive posture and forcing it to recalibrate its regional strategy.

Saudi policy toward Iran is characterized by pragmatic caution. While issuing strong condemnations of Iranian aggression and asserting its right to self-defense, Riyadh carefully avoids direct escalation and maintains a channel for dialogue. This stems from a recognition of Iran as a persistent strategic rival and a desire to avoid open conflict, which would be catastrophic for its economic ambitions. A key shared interest with Israel and elements in Lebanon is seen as countering Hezbollah's dominance, which would reshape Lebanese politics and weaken Iranian influence.

The war has significantly strained Saudi-U.S. relations. Historical instances, such as the perceived U.S. abandonment during the 2019 Abqaiq attacks, fuel a deep-seated skepticism in Riyadh about American security guarantees. Saudi Arabia feels the U.S. is conducting a war that primarily serves U.S. and Israeli interests while Arab states, particularly Saudi Arabia, bear the brunt of the economic and security fallout. This perception is driving Saudi Arabia to seek alternative partnerships and a more independent foreign policy.

Economically, the conflict is a direct threat to Vision 2030. The crown prince's transformative plan, which aims to wean the kingdom off oil dependency through massive investments in technology, tourism, and non-oil industries, requires a stable and predictable regional environment. The current climate of war deters foreign investment and undermines these long-term goals. Consequently, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states are united in their primary demand: an immediate end to the war to preserve their economic futures.

Finally, normalization with Israel is off the table for Saudi Arabia under present conditions. Riyadh explicitly rejects talks, criticizing the current Israeli government as colonialist and a threat to regional security. It links any future diplomatic progress to a credible, U.S.-backed political pathway for the Palestinians, rejecting a solution based solely on military means. The war in Gaza is seen as an extension of Israeli policies pursued at the expense of Arab nations, making normalization politically impossible and aligning Saudi rhetoric more closely with other Arab and Islamic states against Israel's actions.